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Since 2002, at least one NFL team has made the leap from worst to first in its division every season outside of one. Last year, both the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears accomplished the feat in the AFC South and NFC North, respectively.
After simulating the upcoming regular season 1 million times, the Detroit Lions were picked as the favorite to make the jump from worst to first.
The panel responsible for these rankings come from the Football Outsiders Almanac 2019. ESPN+ and Insider subscribers can access the exclusive contentthrough its websitewith a subscription.
Related:Oddsmakers rate Detroit’s Matt Patricia among least likely for winning coach of the year
Since the NFL realigned its divisions back in 2002, 22 teams have made the impressive jump from worst to first. The last season where at least one team failed to completely flip the script was back in 2014.
In compiling its rankings, the Football Outsiders team predicted each franchise’sdefense-adjusted value over average (DVOA)on offense, defense and special teams. Variables included three-year performance, coaching experience and any personnel changes,according to the report.
Once each team’s projected DVOA and the variables were finalized, the group then simulated the upcoming season 1 million times.
The Lions are pegged with a 25.5 percent chance of winning the division and a 39.8 percent chance of making the playoffs after the extensive simulation.
“When a team declines as much as the Lions did last season, it usually rebounds a bit the next year. Our system also likes the talent the Lions have added this offseason,” the Football Outsiders write in its breakdown.
“There are more reasons to be optimistic about the defense hidden among the numbers. The Lions are in the second year of a new scheme, and all else being equal, teams take a little step back in the first year of a new scheme and a step forward once they have more experience in it.”
Related:6 things to watch in Lions-Texans joint practices
The Lions are followed in the rankings by the Jets, Jaguars, Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, Raiders and Buccaneers, in that order. TheFootball Outsidersspecifically like the additions of tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Jesse James, and defensive end Trey Flowers and defensive tackle Mike Daniels.
Daniels and Flowers are set to join a defensive line expected to be among the cream of the crop in the NFL with Snacks Harrison, A’Shawn Robinson and Da’Shawn Hand already in place.
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